Why McCain would Win Over Obama - An Election Framework
I wrote this very hastily since my time has been severely limited with my studies and work. While it lacks eloquence (or even gramatical correctness), I believe that the points I attempt to make are valid and deserve consideration on the Obama momentum
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Now that John McCain has clearly claimed the front runner title for the Republican nomination, serious Democrats should take a moment to contemplate what a McCain nomination might mean. If my own analysis is correct, it would mean that out of two likely scenarios, the Republican’s keep control in one scenario and the other would be to close, but would likely lean Democratic.
A McCain nomination would spell doom if Barack Obama became the nominee for the Democratic Party. It’s not that Barack Obama is a bad candidate or that he lacks broad appeal, but given the frame that the general election will take place in, Obama hasn’t proven that he has what it takes which is to talk in depth about issues rather than his traditional inspirational speeches about One America…….
1st Frame – The Economy
In the first frame, the general election will be about issues. With the economy crashing, layoffs imminent, sky high health care costs, and people losing their homes, voters are going to be looking for the candidate with better and more plausible ideas to solve the worsening crisis. Obama would seem to have the edge on this issue given that McCain has yet to offer a sound plan to fix the economy other than controlling government spending.
Other than a few loose proposals, Obama doesn’t seem to have a cohesive proposal to deal with the economy. In one instance for example, he wants to take China to task on currency manipulation and the trade deficit. Any serious opponent like Clinton and McCain simply need to remind voters that any diplomacy that includes strong-arming China would mean that Mom and Dad wouldn’t be able to buy little Jimmy a tricycle because the price would increase if the product. No one wants to upset a kid! Strong-arm tactics with China is not the solution and Obama’s policy would further hurt the American economy.
2nd Frame – The War
Now that the surge is working and America seems within reach on a political solution to the troubles in
Baghdad, McCain has a lot of credibility on this issue. Not only that, but he knows how to fight a war. While Obama was in grade school, John McCain was fighting to save his life in a Vietnamese prisoner of war camp. Add to that the McCain family history of high positions within the military and all of a sudden Barack Obama looks very, very small compared with McCain.
Not only that, but Obama would and should be painted as reckless with American troops and the integrity of America’s image. It’s one thing to be opposed to the war from the beginning, but Obama wasn’t a United States Senator when the vote took place and had no say in the decision to go to war [furthermore, when it came to important votes in the Senate on American foreign policy, Obama declined to show up and record his vote]. The fact that he gave a speech opposing the war as an
Illinois state senator is not itself, a qualification to be president and commander-in-chief. This is not to say that I support the war (which I don’t and never have), but I do understand what Nixon said when he argued for peace with dignity. .
The ugly truth is this: American troops are in Iraq now. They’re succeeding in their mission (if ever so slowly) to bring stability to Iraq, and pulling them out before their mission is completed is not only dangerous to troop and American morale, but also dangerous for America. George Bush’s reckless and irresponsible decision has put us in a conundrum and America needs to realize this. McCain and Clinton have both advocated a systematic withdrawal based on conditions and achievements. If we take Obama’s course leave before we achieve most of our objectives, several things will happen, (i) Countries throughout the world will fell that they can no longer safely rely on us, (ii) Iran will feel emboldened to take even more draconian steps in building up its nuclear facilities figuring that America will not want to engage in another middle east conflict, and (iii) America will have spent so much in money and blood for what?
3rd Frame – Change
The final frame and the crux of Obama’s argument for his candidacy is change. His argument would be somewhat muted if McCain’s becomes the nominee because it would be the first time in a generation that Republican’s opted for a consensus candidate and one not beholden to the religious right. The other part of this analysis has to do with what could Obama realistically achieve and whether or not American’s truly want change.
As president, Obama has the chance to bring people together, but there is a limit that every president from Washington on up has run into. There are some issues that all American’s regardless of political persuasion can rally around, but some of the fault lines that divide America are deep and unyielding. Take for example abortion. 95% of American’s have already made up there mind on where they stand and will most likely not change their minds. Even if anti-abortionists can’t stomach McCain’s stance, they’ll rally around him because of who he’ll nominate to the Supreme Court. And with two likely liberal retirees coming up, it could be a major issue.
John F. Kennedy, to whom Obama is often compared to said in his inaugural address, “Ask not what your country can do for you, but what you can do for your country.” To achieve this, he inaugurated one of the most heralded programs ever created by the government, the Peace Corp. It’s one thing to ask American’s to go out and do something for their country, whether its volunteering their time or contributing to a worthy cause. It is a completely different thing to ask American’s to change or give up their beliefs on certain issues. Herein lies Obama’s problem - he has not laid out any action plan or agenda on how to unify America.
Second, he has not proposed a single idea on how to fix the deep partisan divide that exists, especially in Congress. As president, he has absolutely no say in how Congress runs itself and Congress thrives on political division because it helps them raise money and keeps them in the spotlight. If he truly wants to alleviate the political divide in Congress, then he should stay in Congress since he’d have a better chance at fixing it. The tilt in Congress has been for more conservative and more liberal candidates to be elected. This only worsens the divide. What would Obama have to do then – he would have to support the more moderate candidates in order to achieve his dream of One America. I have no pretense in saying that should he do so, he would be a bigger disappointment to his base than George W. Bush is. The only way to achieve One America is to compromise, which many on the liberal left don’t want to do, nor do those on the conservative right.
Finally, there is a question as to how much change America really wants. A small percentage of American’s truly pay attention to the finer details of a candidate’s policy positions. It’s why the media has always focused on the rat race. American’s don’t want a news program to go into depth on a candidate’s plan to bring water to the south, but they do want to know what’s happened to which candidate, in which primary. Furthermore, American’s are less likely to read an in-depth news article on the Democrat’s proposal to spend billions of dollars on bridge and infrastructure repair. They do want to read about how the Democrats are trying to get more Republican’s defeated or how Republican’s are fighting back against a Democratic congress. Obama is highly unlikely to persuade the media to cover more rosy issues because it doesn’t sell newspapers or capture viewers.
It is these reasons (less eloquently spelled out) why I can’t support Obama. I love to be inspired, but inspirational speeches alone aren’t going to change America. Serious American’s want specifics not a theme. It is my humble opinion that if Democrats seriously want to compete for the White House, they will recognize that Hillary, the only other viable candidate is the best solution.
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