Why John McCain Will Never Win
I almost wrote the polar opposite of this article: John McCain, Surgin’ Back? He has a lot of bipartisan support, plenty of endorsements, was right about the surge, and is a solid conservative. The only thing missing is his unpopular immigration position and funds. But that’s the thing: McCain will never succeed because of his immigration position.
His poll numbers have been rising, sure, but as I’ve argued before, Republicans have no dream candidate. They are going through “fads”, almost.
But there’s an even broader issue here: immigration is showing up to be the most decisive primary election issue, more decisive than the Iraq war and terrorism even. One reason for this is that all candidates have expressed their positions on the war, and it’s turned out to be a matter of Republican or Democrat; Republicans want to stay (excluding Ron Paul), and Democrats want to leave.
There’s more than that: illegal immigration, many Americans feel, is actually affecting them on almost a day to day basis, unlike the Iraq war.
The other case that brings me to believe this is Clinton and driver’s licenses. Her downturn in the polls started after her gaffe responding to the question of illegal immigrant’s rights to driver licenses. She was really hit hard on her answer to that.
I think it’s fair to say that illegal immigration (along with the economy, which go hand in hand) will turn out to be the deciding factor during the primaries. It won’t necessarily be the most important, but it will be the deciding factor.
The general election?
Just as the Democrats have popular support for their plan to get out of Iraq, the Republicans will have popular support for their appearance of taking a “tough line” on illegal immigration.
So, a lot of it comes down to: are concerns over immigration more important than concerns over terrorism and foreign policy?
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I think you've underestimated McCain. The way the race is shaping makes him very well positioned. If Romney is knocked out, it really seems like a battle between Huckabee and McCain for me. Yes, Fred will still be in South Carolina and Rudy thinks he will still be a factor in Florida and beyond, but without results up to then they're really fooling themselves. And if it is Huckabee vs. McCain, his immigration weakness is really neutralized by the fact that Huckabee also has a fairly soft immigration record. He's certainly not a lock, but McCain is probably my favorite right now to win the nomination.
McCain's political surge is also largely due to his mea culpa about Immigration. "I get it. Americans want the borders secure" On his straight talk jet today he actually said "…build a fence…" He's likely to be FAR tougher about the border than any folks from a certain polit party - so if your logic holds - the guy is unbeatable.
McCain's surge came because there was a Primary in NH. H won it the last time and if he ran again there he would win it again. Hew Hampshire is not a consevative state for Republicans and Fred and other conservatives would never do good there. That is why most of them didn't even campaign there. And McCain wold domuch better against Huckabe because Huckabe is Jimmy Carter all over again. Man all of this talk about who is in thelead and who is catching the wave has got me sick. Only %3 of the total number of dewlegates has been cast. Maybe we shold wait and see what it is like afte Supre Duper Ruesday.
That is Super Duper Tuesday not Ruesday
That is Super Duper Tuesday not Ruesday
That is Super Duper Tuesday not Ruesday
That is Super Duper Tuesday not Ruesday
I think once the media really starts scrutinizing McCain in the following weeks before Super Tuesday, voters will take a hard look at him and think that his immigration position is too soft.
No no - I said specifically "illegal immigration…will turn out to be the deciding factor during the PRIMARIES."
Simmons, I had to pause for a moment this morning to check whether you wrote this or I did. I don't believe for a moment that John McCain has changed his position on immigration at all. McCain is in a mode where he'll say anything to get the nomination, deliberately appealing to independents. A man doesn't spend two years working for amnesty and suddenly reverse course. McCain has agreed to build a fence but that's all. McCain would push amnesty just was hard as GWB, all the while insisting it isn't really 'amnesty' because he would make illegal aliens pay a small fine and say 'I'm sorry'. (He also says they have to learn English, which is hilarious. Will there be a test? Will they get deported if they don't pass? Why doesn't anyone challenge McCain on this stuff?). McCain has also recently joined Al Gore's fight against global warming. I doubt that McCain knows CO2 from H2O, but he doesn't care. He'll say anything to get the young and the naive to turn out for him. Although I haven't seen any polling data, I have long maintaiined that McCain has the highest negatives within his own party of any hopeful, followed closely by Huckabee. The next two weeks will determine who will be the conservative alternative, Romney or Thompson. Romney will get his chance in Michigan, Thompson in SC. If they both stumble, the best we could hope for is a brokered convention where nobody wins on the first ballot. Then conservatives would then have a chance to settle on a compromise, probably Thompson. I will never vote for McCain. I would honestly rather see a Democrat win than McCain. A Democrat would lead in the opposite direction on issues I care about, but McCain wouldn't be much of an improvement. At least with the Democrat, the GOP could unite in opposition and McCain would never be president. The GOP could then start over and rebuild. Four years with McCain as party leader and POTUS would turn the GOP into a authoritarian/ globalist party, even more than they are now, leaving conservatives nowhere to go. I hope you are right and McCain will never win.