Election Repeat

Somehow I told you so, just doesn’t seem to fit. For months, I have been arguing that the only way the Democrats can secure the White House in 2008 is to nominate a centrist Democrat – ala Hillary Clinton. And now, the proof is in the pudding and its decision time for Democrats. Do we want to win, or do we want to lose?

From my perch, the doomsday scenario for the Democratic Party comes to fruition if either Edwards or Obama is the nominee. They simply are not consensus candidates and won’t be able to garner enough of the independent vote that Democrat’s need to win the White House. According to almost every major poll, NBC/WSJ, USA Today/Gallup, and CNN, Clinton is the prohibitive favorite in a general election. According to Michael Duffy Time magazine, Clinton is the only Democrat that would win in the general election.

One might ask why has Rudy Giuliani, the antithesis of the modern Republican Party, been leading the national polls for the nomination contest? Although that may change very quickly, he’s correctly betting that moderate and delegate rich states will be enough to give him the edge in the nominating contest. I also think Republican’s realize that they aren’t going to win this on values and that they need someone who can appeal to independents and moderates on both sides in order to win.

Finally, although the writers are still on strike, one repeat is sure to happen if either party nominates a polarizing candidate. Enter Mayor Mike Bloomberg. If Democrats are looking for a reason to check their anger and willingness to fight at the door, all they will have to remember is 2000, only this time, we won’t be able to blame the spoiler, but ourselves. I think it’s inevitable that depending on the nominee, Mayor Mike will enter the race as an independent candidate. He doesn’t have to win in order for us to lose (just ask George H.W. Bush in ’92 or Al Gore in ’00). According to sources close to him, Mayor Mike has privately suggested that he might enter the race if Huckabee, Obama or Edwards are the nominees for their respective party.

You don’t have to take these sources at their word, just look at the facts. (i) Mayor Mike has been extensively promoting his national image as a “can do” candidate. He’s made New York greener by introducing environmentally friendly policies, he’s guided New York thru its rebuilding, and he’s about to set a national standard in how we count the poor; (ii) He’s been receiving daily foreign policy briefs by among others, Henry Kissinger and Nancy Soderberg; (iii) He’s prepared to dump a billion dollars into his campaign fund without batting an eye; and (iv) There’s already a growing bi-partisan movement to get him to enter. People like former Senators Boren and Nunn, as well as Senator Hagel are urging him to enter. Also, another indication is that all of the website addresses, like Bloomberg08.com and Mike08.com are owned which is a signal of intent.

I don’t think anyone could argue that he’s a spoiler. Unlike Ralph Nader, Bloomberg wouldn’t run to be heard or to make a political point, he’d run to win. Even if he doesn’t win (although there is a good chance he could), he would draw a sizeable number of moderates and independents that might otherwise have voted for us. His appeal is that he’s a pragmatic, progressive centrist and that he can govern I say this because unlike Republican’s, Democrats aren’t as ideologically pure and we don’t vote just because there’s a (D) after a candidate’s name (i.e. Reagan Democrats). So if we want to commit political suicide, they only need to give Bloomberg a reason to enter the race.

I think it goes without saying that the people to my left are extremely angry for being shut out in the frigid wasteland of political obscurity for 6 years and arguably longer. So Storm’d at with shot and shell, eyes glaring with seething contempt, the left wing of the Democratic Party is fixated on nominating a non-consensus candidate in the form of either John Edwards (the angry populist) or Barack Obama (the Howard Dean 2.1 candidate). But doing so is detrimental to the health of the Democratic Party.

Like the Light Brigade before them, if either candidate is the Democratic nominee, we can safely bet on four more years of political obscurity. That means one, possibly two Supreme Court justices, the Federal appellate courts, the White House and much more. So its time to ask ourselves, do we want to win, or do we want to go down swinging with our principles intact? Heaven help us if we make the wrong choice.

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