With High Confidence; Intel We Can Finally Believe
Caution is the word of the day, especially when it comes to standing confidently on either side of the NIE report, excepting the president of course. This at least is the slant of opinions at The NY Times; good news is bad news, and bad is good. Why is it that the same intelligence community that got it so “wrong on Iraq,” is now suddenly streamlined and worthy of the respect of reality? It kind of depends on the “reality:”
“There is a lot of good news in the latest intelligence assessment about Iran. Tehran, we are now told, halted its secret nuclear weapons program in 2003, which means that President Bush has absolutely no excuse for going to war against Iran. We are also relieved that the intelligence community is now willing to question its own assumptions and challenge the White House’s fevered rhetoric. The president and his aides are apparently too worried about getting caught again shaving intelligence to stop that.
But there’s also a lot of worrisome news in there that must not be overlooked.”
It’s interesting that the “intelligence community is now willing to question its own assumptions,” as long as the “assumptions” soften the foundation under the president’s stance that Iran is up to something and it’s not pretty.
Now the intelligence community that was so reviled for its “errors” and “blanks” on Iraq is not taking any chances so it couches unknowns with a certain degree of the impression that, “gee, they stopped/started, but boy if they chose to they could kick it up a notch.” God forbid that the planet may have some bad guys in it that may need to be dealt with at a time when we are stretched to a degree. Better to wait for a more convenient time that plays to our hectic and scary schedule. Better to believe that we in the U.S. need the attitude adjustment and not the other way around so you can hold your head high with the confidence of our opinion makers. Better to just wait it out, hope for the best and then deal with it after the fact…intelligence is a little more accurate then.
The board writes of the “carrot-and-stick approach” with the entitlement of “real rewards” for Iran if they cooperate, the board also admits it doesn’t know something:
“We don’t know if the Iranians will find any offer credible, or if they even want to. It is the least Mr. Bush can do to try to salvage his credibility with the American people and America’s allies.”
We’ll have to assume this was one of those details the NIE did not cover with any great effort and even though they do not mention it hopefully the least they can do is assist in the salvaging of “credibility;” which is a “credibility” gap they have done much to help erect.
Over in another padded room in the Left wing of the Leftist Times, Maureen Dowd puts her gray cell to work this morning with an “opinion” piece regarding the report and it’s a prime example of supporting “intelligence” when it suits; oddly the very same condition she claims the president suffers from. Of interest is the White House news conference yesterday with Dowd availing herself of the use of the multilingualism of Mark Silva of The Chicago Tribune (dang that degree in Masseusonautics is being put to good use):
‘“I can’t help but read your body language this morning, Mr. President you seem somehow dispirited, somewhat dispirited.”’
Dowd takes the President to task for his takes on intel with the erroneous application of her own methods of understanding intel:
“If W. can shape the intelligence to match his faith-based beliefs, as with Iraq, then he will believe the intelligence — no matter how incredible it is.
If he can’t shape it to match his beliefs, as with Iran, then he will disregard the intelligence — no matter how credible it is.”
No matter how credible or incredible it is, look to Bush and go the other way.
Mullah Friedman does his part in a draft of the Iranian National Intelligence Estimate (INIE); where it is criminally easier to try on and walk around in the shoes of our enemy than it is to give the CIC’s running shoes a shot; presumably one would think this would be easier than a hike in Persian slippers, but one would be wrong. Friedman does not see fit to try on any attitudes other than his own Leftist take that the U.S. is bad, especially under GWB (not the bridge). After all, it’s much easier to see the gullible village idiot in Washington playing right into the hands of the Mullahs and Momo, than it is to keep a military option on the table; if only for rhetorical ends. According to Friedman’s faux INIE it is the U.S. that is faltering, flailing and failing, not the middle aged mindset of the Iranian government. The imagination can run wild with the sorry state of the Union under this president and the rosy times ahead for the Iranian Republic.
The first of three reasons the U.S. is in decline:
“America is on a path of self-destruction, for three reasons:
First, 9/11 has made America afraid and therefore stupid. The “war on terrorism” is now so deeply imbedded in America’s psyche that we think it is “highly likely” that America will continue to export more fear than hope and will continue to defend things like torture and Guantánamo Bay prison and to favor politicians like Mr. Giuliani, who alienates the rest of the world.”
As Friedman the Mullah points out, it all boils down to “who needs nukes when you have this kind of America?” Indeed, what would they do without our Friedmans or Dowds?
If America were not the problem, they wouldn’t know how to solve anything.
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Oh goody, I get to be the first to comment! We don't know, of course, how accurate the latest NIE is. We can surmise, though, that it's conclusions were not fed to the intelligence community from the Vice President's office, this time. It is also comforting that it is in general agreement with the IAEA. Maybe some of those people actually do know what they are doing.
Just ask John Bolton: "Rarely has a document from the supposedly hidden world of intelligence had such an impact as the National Intelligence Estimate released this week. Rarely has an administration been so unprepared for such an event. And rarely have vehement critics of the "intelligence community" on issues such as Iraq's weapons of mass destruction reversed themselves so quickly. All this shows that we not only have a problem interpreting what the mullahs in Tehran are up to, but also a more fundamental problem: Too much of the intelligence community is engaging in policy formulation rather than "intelligence" analysis, and too many in Congress and the media are happy about it. President Bush may not be able to repair his Iran policy (which was not rigorous enough to begin with) in his last year, but he would leave a lasting legacy by returning the intelligence world to its proper function." I think it's sabotage. I just can't wait until President Bush gets the hell out of office - there's no telling the damage his opponents will do until he's gone…
I think calling this 'sabotage' is taking it a little too far. The NIE is always going to be politicized, and the majority of the time it will be politicized in the way the party that controls the White House wants it to be politicized. And I believe this report actually works well for the administration, and all of us who want to succeed in Iraq. http://int-relations.blogspot.com/2007/12/how-wil...
There is one outcome from this debacle, and the Wall Street Journal puts it succinctly: "All the more so because the NIE heard 'round the world is already harming U.S. policy. The Chinese are backing away from whatever support they might have provided for tougher sanctions against Iran, while Russia has used the NIE as another reason to oppose them. Most delighted are the Iranians, who called the NIE a "victory" and reasserted their intention to proceed full-speed ahead with uranium enrichment. Behind the scenes, we can expect Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to expand their nuclear efforts as they conclude that the U.S. will now be unable to stop Iran from getting the bomb." It's not about Iraq, Simmons (though with the left everything is about Iraq). It's about a nuclearized Middle East - and the consequences of failure in the negotiations with Tehran go far beyond a terrorist state attaining weapons of mass destruction, it forces everyone else in that region to do the same in order to protect themselves from being blackmailed by Iran. What this report has done is serious damage to the momentum gained for international opposition to their program. For those crying about American unilateralism - this report wipes away years of effort at building a coalition - and actually increases the likelihood of violence to neuter Iran and quell the Middle East's belief that it must nuke up to protect itself.
I never said we shouldn't continue pressuring Iran… I, in fact agree Iran is still a huge threat because of its proxies and the danger of an arms race. I do disagree with you though that this "actually increases the likelihood of violence to neuter Iran." Unless you're not referring to the information in the report? The information in the report essentially guaruntees there will be no war with Iran unless a report suggesting the polar of opposite of this report is released.
Simmons says "The information in the report essentially guaruntees there will be no war with Iran unless a report suggesting the polar of opposite of this report is released. " The information in the report is an estimate - hence its title - National Intelligence Estimate. Inasmuch as you trust the information in the report, it supports a position of nonintervention (though it hedges its assumptions), but no one but the president can guarantee that there will be no war with Iran. Reports from non-elected bureaucrats don't set policy - they only inform it. Can the estimate be trusted? I say no - http://politicalvindication.com/?p=1524
That's like saying evolution is a theory. It doesn't hold its ground. Generally, I'd say the majority of the NIE's the intelligence community have been good intel. There are other reasons the report can be trusted, which I've outlined: http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2007/12...
That's like saying evolution is a theory. It doesn't hold its ground. Generally, I'd say the majority of the NIE's the intelligence community have been good intel. There are other reasons the report can be trusted, which I've outlined: http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2007/12...
That's like saying evolution is a theory. It doesn't hold its ground. Generally, I'd say the majority of the NIE's the intelligence community have been good intel. There are other reasons the report can be trusted, which I've outlined: http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2007/12...
That's like saying evolution is a theory. It doesn't hold its ground. Generally, I'd say the majority of the NIE's the intelligence community have been good intel. There are other reasons the report can be trusted, which I've outlined: http://thethoughtsontheworld.blogspot.com/2007/12...
Simmons grunts "That's like saying evolution is a theory. It doesn't hold its ground." Um, ok. Whatever. Why do I even waste my time?
Blandly great piece1 THank you for putting it all together. Amazing that so many peole will willingly deny reality and clutch their old fave (like an old Teddy Bear?) and cry out America is at fault. To bad Americans don't buy it - in fact Rasmussen says 76% of Americans think the NIE 2007 is make believe - like elves and Eskimos.
The Bush Presidency Mission Statement….. "No matter how credible or incredible it is, look to Bush and go the other way." 390 days to go.