The Next President of the United States will be …

With less than a year to go before the presidential election and just six weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the time has come for election predictions.

At first glance things don’t look good for the Republicans, with G.W. Bush the most unpopular president in US history. Historically speaking, however, the Democrats have problems of their own. The Democrat controlled congress is even more unpopular than Bush. Five of the Democratic hopefuls are current or former US senators; one is a governor; one is a congressman. Despite numerous attempts, senators have historically had a difficult time winning a presidential election. Indeed in all of American history only two have managed to move directly from the Senate to the White House (Warren Harding in 1920, and John Kennedy in 1960). JFK won by only the narrowest of margins and his experience as a naval officer in combat was as important to voters as his senate career. These senators are legislators applying for an executive position, often with little executive experience. They can debate both sides of an issue endlessly, but they often have no experience in leadership or management. Outside of their years in the Senate, these Democratic hopefuls do not have impressive executive resumes; all five are lawyers. Hillary Clinton (HRC) lived in the White House as first lady. Barack Obama was an Illinois state senator. John Edwards made a fortune in civil litigation. Joe Biden has been in the Senate practically his whole adult life. Only Chris Dodd has experience in the military. Governor Richardson isn’t well funded enough to be nominated. Congressman Kucinich is a lunatic and functions primarily to provide comic relief to the debates.

Hillary has a tremendous advantage in political connections and was an important part of her husband’s two winning presidential campaigns. To counter HRC’s advantages, Edwards and Obama have run to the left of her, making her seem moderate. They both seek to outbid her in promising to increase the power and scope of government but it’s not working. The frustration for the other candidates is they all disagree on very little. All are liberals; all believe in the power of government; all want amnesty for illegal aliens (although none will ever use that word); all say the Iraq war was a disaster, and all would raise taxes. Clinton has the novelty of being female and Obama is (half) black, but there are few differences in positions or experience among the leading hopefuls. HRC’s contacts and connections will make the difference in the end and she will get the nomination. She will likely pick a noncontroversial running mate like Joe Biden.

The Republican field, by contrast is much more diverse. It has a sitting Senator and a retired one, but it also features a former mayor, two former governors, and three sitting congressmen. The congressmen, despite having some of the most enthusiastic supporters, don’t have the money, the fame or the connections to have a chance at the nomination. Former governor Huckabee, a gifted public speaker and former Baptist preacher, does well in early polls because of his talent for telling people what they want to hear at any given time. Once people realize how phony this guy really is, his support will dry up. Senator McCain ruined his chances at the nomination a-year-and-a-half ago with his strident support of amnesty for illegal aliens.

Mayor Giuliani is the most famous of the hopefuls, largely because of his role as mayor of New York City during the September 11 attacks. His fame helps him do well in early national polls, but Republicans have serious doubts about him. His more liberal positions on abortion and gun control make him less popular among social conservatives. Most Republicans would be willing to overlook their ideological differences if they believed that Rudy was the only candidate who could keep Hillary out of the White House, but his personal life causes concern about his electability. In 2002, Giuliani recommended his friend Bernard Kerik to be Secretary of Homeland Security, at which point multiple scandals derailed the nomination, with Kerik pleading guilty to corruption charges. Rudy has been married three times and divorced twice. His second divorce was particularly nasty as his wife learned that he intended to separate from her at a public press conference. His own daughter doesn’t use her father’s name and doesn’t support his candidacy. Rudy also can behave oddly, sometimes taking cell phone calls while delivering a speech. Most disturbing of all, Rudy seems to know little of the world outside of New York City. Still, he’s ahead in the national polls and remains the man to beat for the nomination. So what are the Giuliani doubters to do?

Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson will battle it out to be the alternative to Giuliani. Here Romney has the advantage, leading the polls in the first three primary season states. If Romney can win the first three contests the news media will confer upon him the status of front-runner. Unless Thompson can pull an upset win in South Carolina, the GOP contest will quickly turn into a choice between Giuliani and Romney.

Giuliani’s strategy is to lower expectations and concede the early states, hoping instead to take the lead in delegates by winning New York and California on February 5. The issue that will decide the nomination is illegal immigration. All of the GOP hopefuls say they oppose amnesty but Giuliani has a record of supporting illegal immigration. While mayor, Giuliani upheld NYC’s policy as a sanctuary city. In a speech in 1996, Rudy described “an executive order that New York City has had in existence since 1988, which basically says that New York City will create a zone of protection for illegal and undocumented immigrants who are seeking the protection of the police… .” Giuliani said the final welfare reform bill, signed by President Clinton in 1996, was “anti-immigrant” and, “although I do think the bill does some good, in the end I believe it does more harm than good.” Indeed the mayor went so far as to sue the federal government (unsuccessfully) to protect the sanctuary policy. Seeing a vulnerability in his rival’s record, Romney has hammered Giuliani almost daily on the issue. If he doesn’t overplay his hand, the attacks will work and Romney will be the nominee. He may ask Thompson to be his running mate.

Mitt has vulnerabilities of his own, but none he can’t overcome. Mitt is a Mormon, from a Mormon family, a religion many consider a cult. Further, his support for gay rights and abortion rights while as Governor of Massachusetts are at odds with his current positions. Mitt has changed his positions so many times that his detractors have dubbed him “Flip Romney.” Voters may also hesitate to elect a second MBA president.

Against Hillary in the general election the superficial works in Romney’s favor. Mitt is tall, handsome, even presidential looking. He’s articulate and has a good speaking voice. Hillary, by contrast, has a strong Chicago accent; it may sound fine to midwesterners, but to the rest of the country (particularly southerners) it sounds like fingers on a chalkboard, especially when she gets excited. Furthermore, Clinton is handicapped by her name. Her election would mean that the presidency would be filled for twenty (or twenty-four) years by people from only two families. Voters will hesitate to perpetuate a Bush-Clinton dynasty, especially with some people urging JEB Bush to run in 2012 or 2016. Hillary’s candidacy will just dredge up all of those bad memories of scandal and impeachment from her husband’s administration; Clinton fatigue won’t take long to set in. Besides, wives succeed their husbands in office in banana republics, not in the USA.

Hillary’s favorite campaign tactic is to attack the current administration, but that tactic won’t work against Romney (or Thompson or Giuliani for that matter). Almost all of the Republican leadership from 2001-2007 is retiring, has already retired or has been voted out of office. Beating up on G. W. Bush is like shooting fish in a barrel, but Bush won’t be on the ballot in 2008 and neither will any member of his administration. She seeks to tar all Republicans with the mistakes of GWB, but at some point she’ll have to deal with a new GOP platform, written by a new candidate and that will be much harder. In his entire career Romney has never held federal office and has never worked in Washington DC. In some ways, Clinton vs. Romney would pit the ultimate Washington insider against the ultimate Washington outsider, in a year of strong anti-Washington feelings.

Hillary has to support amnesty for illegal aliens to get the nomination because of the power of Hispanic interest groups in the Democratic party. She bristles at any question about illegal immigration because she knows that her position will be unpopular in the general election. Only 19% of the public supported the Senate amnesty bill that she voted for last Spring. Mitt will beat her up with the issue, just like he did Rudy.

In November, voters will vote against four more years of the Clinton co-presidency. The Republican will win by default, and right now that Republican looks like Mitt Romney.

-Stuart Jones

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