Manama Dialogue Opening Remarks by Dr John Chipman

Third IISS Regional Security Summit, The Manama Dialogue

Opening Remarks. Dr John Chipman CMG, Director

Welcome to the Third IISS Regional Security Summit, in the Kingdom of Bahrain.

The inaugural IISS Dialogue in this region was held in Bahrain, in December 2004 and the second in December 2005.

The Manama Dialogue, like the Shangri-La Dialogue that the IISS hosts annually in Singapore, is a unique exercise in regional security diplomacy. We have been asked by key personalities from the participating states to organise this summit annually and to develop it so that it becomes a forum at which policy is further advanced and decisions taken. The Dialogue’s principal advantage is that all delegations are led by ministers and national security advisers who, because this is not a formal institution, can meet bilaterally and multilaterally to conduct business without needing to spend time drafting a final communiqué. Precisely because this is an informal institution, a good deal of real diplomacy can happen during its course.

Why the need for this security Dialogue? Certainly the issues are pressing. The political, economic and military situation in Iraq continues to worsen and the policy of key players towards the country and the region is in flux. Iran is seeking to assume a vitally central position in the region that its size and population would naturally recommend, but its ambitions are inspiring concern amongst its Arab neighbours, and even greater anxiety elsewhere. The security relations between the US and the GCC states are strong, but are built on a thin level of domestic consent. European countries are engaged in a good deal of overt geopolitical diplomacy towards the region, and yet cannot play much of an independent military role. Asian states have ever deeper economic and political links here, but will struggle to avoid involvement in the area’s delicate politics if they are to advance their commercial aims. Navies from many different countries try to keep the sea-lanes secure, while borders both land and maritime are under changing threats. Demographic realities and sectarian divisions present unusual challenges to regional states and to those who engage them from outside. Finally, regional security arrangements seem to be subject to an ever-shifting political arithmetic involving six states plus one or two or three or four or more, depending on what the diplomatic traffic will bear at any given time. These questions are on our agenda for this summit, and need to be addressed by the relevant parties.

The Heads of State, and many different ministers of the six members of the Gulf Co-operation Council meet regularly. Indeed the GCC Heads of State are meeting this Saturday. Let me thank the heads of the delegations of the six GCC states represented here for the tremendous personal effort they have made to be with us here tonight and some also tomorrow morning. Indeed their presence here, on the eve of a GCC summit, demonstrates a key purpose of this Dialogue which is to help connect the other parts of the region together. We have strong minister-led delegations from Iran, Iraq and Yemen who are not part of any formal regional security arrangement, but without whom no stable regional security system can be built.

Improved relations between these nine countries and other neighbouring states also represented here is vital. Important too, is an accommodation with the many countries from further away who have political and security relationships of different kinds with the states of the region. That is why we are delighted to have gathered together national security establishments from the region, Europe, North America, but crucially also the Asia-Pacific. We are especially glad that India and Japan have both sent their national security advisers this year, that Australia is again represented by the defence minister and that Pakistan is joining the Dialogue for the first time, represented at the highest military level.

The IISS has no agenda of its own in organising this meeting, other than to offer an opportunity for defence diplomacy to do its work.

The 22 states represented here are taking part in a meeting designed as four events rolled into one. Firstly, the plenary sessions offer a platform for ministers and national security advisors to clarify and expand on government policy, and to be challenged by an expert group on policies and assumptions, in this way informing and refining the quality of wider public debate on regional security. Secondly, the break-out groups, also involving senior officials, provide a private opportunity for professional discussions to analyse more deeply pertinent strategic issues and to advance policy aims. Thirdly, the bilaterals between national security advisors and ministers allow delegation leaders privately to advance immediate policy goals. Fourthly, the multilateral lunches and dinners help to cultivate the sense of a defence and security community where shared interests can be protected and advanced.

The 2004 Dialogue was an experiment. The 2005 Dialogue was a successful repeat of that effort. The presence here in 2006 of more ministers, more officials, from more countries is proof that this security summit is a useful informal institution for regional security. The IISS is committed to continuing to build this regional security summit and to make it a progressively more inclusive exercise in regional security diplomacy at the highest level. This Dialogue will play its part in advancing sound policies to address the region’s pressing issues. Let me thank the Kingdom of Bahrain for its commitment to this multilateral effort and for its support to the Summit.

It gives me very great pleasure now, to ask the Chairman of the IISS, Francois Heisbourg, to introduce our very distinguished, Keynote speaker.

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